Climate Forecasting at the Leading Edge of Science
The World Climate Service Offers Two Industry Leading Products:
Forecasts and climate analysis tools providing guidance for 1-6 months into the future. The seasonal WCS subscription provides access to a comprehensive monthly report as well as unique and interactive website tools such as model progression visualization and an index analog database. [Click Picture for More Information]
Forecasts and analysis tools focused on a 2-6 week forecast lead time. Subseasonal forecasting is an emerging field that has long been regarded as even more challenging than seasonal forecasting, and demand for actionable subseasonal climate forecast guidance is growing rapidly. [Click Picture for More Information]
We endeavor to provide the world’s most reliable, valuable, scientifically advanced climate forecasts and long-range weather intelligence for commodity trading desks and other entities. We strive for excellence in all aspects of our work.
The World Climate Service is unreservedly committed to ethical business practices and a transparent scientific approach to long-range seasonal climate forecasting.
The emerging field of seasonal and subseasonal climate forecasting demands ongoing research and development while refining existing techniques. The World Climate Service is known for an agile development process and rapid product roll-out.
- The World Climate Service avoids over-reliance on a single forecast tool or method. The complexity of the long-range forecast problem demands a broad suite of predictors and an intelligent system to extract predictability.
Probability and Confidence
- The World Climate Service provides and promotes information about forecast confidence and uncertainty. By embracing a probabilistic approach, WCS clients take advantage of high-probability “forecasts of opportunity”.
- The World Climate Service empowers user decision systems by providing automated data feeds. Quantitative forecasts of industry-specific variables allow clients to make weather-sensitive decisions with precision and confidence.
The World Climate Service Team
John A Dutton
US Bureau of Reclamation Press Release On March 7, 2019, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) announced the winners of their Subseasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo, which took place between April 2017 and April 2018. Prescient Weather participated in the contest and performed very well, ranking first for all categories combined and second in all but[…]
Introduction to Seasonal and Subseasonal Probability Forecasts World Climate Service seasonal and subseasonal (S2S) weather forecasts emphasize probabilistic information, which is less intuitive but more powerful than the traditional style of deterministic short-term weather forecasts. Probability forecasts are able to empower quantitative decision systems, because they allow the user to calculate the financial consequences of[…]
The World Climate Service uses a special technique called “calibration” to ensure the forecasts of probabilities of weather events are properly estimated. It’s a fairly complex technique that requires processing a significant amount of retrospective data from dynamical models such as the CFSv2 and the ECMWF. The subseasonal and seasonal dynamical model calibration methodology used[…]
Since 2006, the UN FAO has been using the World Climate Service to help protect food sources in regions vulnerable to desert locust outbreaks.
A recent article in the Wall Street Journal, quoting World Climate Service scientist Paul Knight, commented on the contradictory winter forecasts issued by two competing versions of the U.S. “Farmer’s Almanac”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-winter-be-nasty-or-nice-depends-which-farmers-almanac-you-read-11545929300 While the discussion is lighthearted, and some might say the forecasts themselves are not to be taken seriously, the article illustrates the popular[…]
Upgrade to World Climate Service Subseasonal Product The World Climate Service, an industry-leading provider of long-range weather and climate forecasts, announces the launch of a significant upgrade to its subseasonal forecast product. Subseasonal forecasts (3-6 weeks ahead) are increasingly sought after by weather-sensitive enterprises in diverse industry sectors. The product upgrade, released on December 11th,[…]
With the NAO turning negative as we enter an El Niño winter during solar minimum, should Europe expect a repeat of the cold winter of 2009-2010? Last week the World Climate Service released its updated forecast for the winter months of December through February. While the details of the forecast are restricted to customers[…]
World Climate Service Subseasonal Climate Forecast Performs Well In April 2017, the US Bureau of Reclamation launched a year-long realtime subseasonal climate forecasting competition. Contestants were asked to predict temperature and precipitation over the western half of the USA for lead times of 3-4 weeks and 5-6 weeks separately. The forecasts were issued every other[…]
A notable late winter cold outbreak over Europe was successfully anticipated by World Climate Service sub-seasonal forecast guidance. Beginning in early January, WCS sub-seasonal outlooks identified a threat of cold at some point in February, and the risk was more clearly defined in subsequent guidance; by early February, confidence was high that a prominent cold[…]
Prescient Weather was honored by the American Meteorological Society at its 2018 annual meeting in Austin, Texas. Prescient Weather, which operates the World Climate Service, was granted the 2018 award for outstanding services to meteorology by a corporation; the citation reads “For scientific creativity and technological innovation in transforming climate data, climate variability predictions, and[…]