Upgrade to World Climate Service Subseasonal

Week 2 Subseasonal Forecast Example

Upgrade to World Climate Service Subseasonal Product

The World Climate Service, an industry-leading provider of long-range weather and climate forecasts, announces the launch of a significant upgrade to its subseasonal forecast product.  Subseasonal forecasts (3-6 weeks ahead) are increasingly sought after by weather-sensitive enterprises in diverse industry sectors.   The product upgrade, released on December 11th, 2018, includes the following content and capability upgrades.

A Complete Ensemble Dynamical Multi-model Forecast Application

The WCS subseasonal forecast application now includes multi-model anomaly and probability forecasts for impact variables including HDDs, CDDs, and solar insolation.  The upgrade complements the previously available variables including temperature, precipitation, mean sea level pressure and wind speed.  The CFSv2 and ECMWF models are included along with a proprietary skill-weighted blend, creating a multi-model analysis.

Week 2 Subseasonal Forecast Example

… and a Complementary Subseasonal Analog Forecast Tool

Analog analysis is an important method that adds context and insight into any subseasonal forecast.  The WCS subseasonal analog forecast tool enables users to analyze historical analogs based on a menu of subseasonal indices such as the MJO, NAO, PNA, and stratospheric polar vortex strength.  This flexible, powerful interface provides a substantial statistical tool to complement the dynamical model guidance.

A Medium-Range Teleconnection Index Forecast Tool

Forecasters pay close attention to teleconnection patterns, which help simplify and explain the atmospheric circulation.  Teleconnection forecasts of 8 key indices are provided for the 00Z and 12Z runs of the GEFS, Canadian, and ECMWF ensemble dynamical models.  The more frequent updates of the medium-range guidance provide forecasters with timely warning of potential changes to the subseasonal outlook.ECMWF PNA Teleconnection Forecast Example

… with SCAND and EA/WR Subseasonal Indices Added

The Scandinavian (SCAND) and East Atlantic/ West Russia (EA/WR) patterns have important impacts on European climate variability. The subseasonal product has been expanded to provide tracking and forecasting of these important indices.