What is a probabilistic climate forecast?

Introduction to Seasonal and Subseasonal Probability Forecasts World Climate Service seasonal and subseasonal (S2S) weather forecasts emphasize probabilistic information, which is less intuitive but more powerful than the traditional style of deterministic short-term weather forecasts.  Probability forecasts are able to empower quantitative decision systems, because they allow the user to calculate the financial consequences of[…]

Ensemble Dynamical Forecast Model Calibration for Seasonal Climate Prediction

The World Climate Service uses a special technique called “calibration” to ensure the forecasts of probabilities of weather events are properly estimated. It’s a fairly complex technique that requires processing a significant amount of retrospective data from dynamical models such as the CFSv2 and the ECMWF. The subseasonal and seasonal dynamical model calibration methodology used[…]