Benefits of Success: World Climate Service in the USBR Forecast Rodeo

US Bureau of Reclamation Press Release On March 7, 2019, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) announced the winners of their Subseasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo, which took place between April 2017 and April 2018. Prescient Weather participated in the contest and  performed very well, ranking first for all categories combined and second in all but[…]

What is a probabilistic climate forecast?

Introduction to Seasonal and Subseasonal Probability Forecasts World Climate Service seasonal and subseasonal (S2S) weather forecasts emphasize probabilistic information, which is less intuitive but more powerful than the traditional style of deterministic short-term weather forecasts.  Probability forecasts are able to empower quantitative decision systems, because they allow the user to calculate the financial consequences of[…]

Example Model Consistency Display

Ensemble Dynamical Forecast Model Calibration for Seasonal Climate Prediction

The World Climate Service uses a special technique called “calibration” to ensure the forecasts of probabilities of weather events are properly estimated. It’s a fairly complex technique that requires processing a significant amount of retrospective data from dynamical models such as the CFSv2 and the ECMWF. The subseasonal and seasonal dynamical model calibration methodology used[…]

Week 2 Subseasonal Forecast Example

Upgrade to World Climate Service Subseasonal

Upgrade to World Climate Service Subseasonal Product The World Climate Service, an industry-leading provider of long-range weather and climate forecasts, announces the launch of a significant upgrade to its subseasonal forecast product.  Subseasonal forecasts (3-6 weeks ahead) are increasingly sought after by weather-sensitive enterprises in diverse industry sectors.   The product upgrade, released on December 11th,[…]