A Remarkable Analog: 2002

On November 18, the World Climate Service issued its seasonal forecast and discussion for winter (December-February) 2019-2020 in the U.S. and Europe. WCS seasonal outlooks include an overview of expected climate anomalies, key drivers, and risk factors for the upcoming three-month season, and our forecast document contains detailed discussion of available predictors, including dynamical model[…]

Making Sense of Long Range Forecasts

In an October 31 blog post, distinguished meteorologist Cliff Mass of the University of Washington commented on the degree of usefulness of long-range forecasts, with the title, “Extended Forecasts Are Not Reliable”. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/10/extended-forecasts-are-not-reliable.html Dr. Mass highlights the lack of deterministic skill in the dynamical forecast models beyond two weeks and illustrates the problem of “poor[…]

European Summer Forecast Success

One of the core products that the World Climate Service delivers to customers is a once-a-month seasonal forecast report focused on expected climate conditions in the next three months in Europe and North America. The report includes comprehensive discussion of factors that are likely to influence the seasonal climate, and the forecast is summarized in[…]

Week 3 temperature probability forecast

Seasonal Forecasts – Who To Believe?

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal, quoting World Climate Service scientist Paul Knight, commented on the contradictory winter forecasts issued by two competing versions of the U.S. “Farmer’s Almanac”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-winter-be-nasty-or-nice-depends-which-farmers-almanac-you-read-11545929300 While the discussion is lighthearted, and some might say the forecasts themselves are not to be taken seriously, the article illustrates the popular[…]

World Climate Service Places First in Forecast Rodeo – A Subseasonal Climate Forecast Contest

World Climate Service Subseasonal Climate Forecast Performs Well   In April 2017, the US Bureau of Reclamation launched a year-long realtime subseasonal climate forecasting competition.  Contestants were asked to predict temperature and precipitation over the western half of the USA for lead times of 3-4 weeks and 5-6 weeks separately.  The forecasts were issued every other[…]

February 2018 – Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecast Success

A notable late winter cold outbreak over Europe was successfully anticipated by World Climate Service sub-seasonal forecast guidance.  Beginning in early January, WCS sub-seasonal outlooks identified a threat of cold at some point in February, and the risk was more clearly defined in subsequent guidance; by early February, confidence was high that a prominent cold[…]

January 2018 – Prescient Weather Recognized By The AMS

Prescient Weather was honored by the American Meteorological Society at its 2018 annual meeting in Austin, Texas.  Prescient Weather, which operates the World Climate Service, was granted the 2018 award for outstanding services to meteorology by a corporation; the citation reads “For scientific creativity and technological innovation in transforming climate data, climate variability predictions, and[…]