The World Climate Service uses a special technique called “calibration” to ensure the forecasts of probabilities of weather events are properly estimated. It’s a fairly complex technique that requires processing a significant amount of retrospective data from dynamical models such as the CFSv2 and the ECMWF. The subseasonal and seasonal dynamical model calibration methodology used[…]
Since 2006, the UN FAO has been using the World Climate Service to help protect food sources in regions vulnerable to desert locust outbreaks.
A recent article in the Wall Street Journal, quoting World Climate Service scientist Paul Knight, commented on the contradictory winter forecasts issued by two competing versions of the U.S. “Farmer’s Almanac”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-winter-be-nasty-or-nice-depends-which-farmers-almanac-you-read-11545929300 While the discussion is lighthearted, and some might say the forecasts themselves are not to be taken seriously, the article illustrates the popular[…]
With the NAO turning negative as we enter an El Niño winter during solar minimum, should Europe expect a repeat of the cold winter of 2009-2010? Last week the World Climate Service released its updated forecast for the winter months of December through February. While the details of the forecast are restricted to customers[…]
A phase II NOAA SBIR grant was awarded to the World Climate Service to develop seasonal and subseasonal climate forecasts of industry-specific impact variables and extreme events. The grant will allow Prescient Weather to extend the capabilities of the World Climate Service. The expected development will improve the subseasonal climate forecast capabilities by focusing on[…]