A Remarkable Analog: 2002

On November 18, the World Climate Service issued its seasonal forecast and discussion for winter (December-February) 2019-2020 in the U.S. and Europe. WCS seasonal outlooks include an overview of expected climate anomalies, key drivers, and risk factors for the upcoming three-month season, and our forecast document contains detailed discussion of available predictors, including dynamical model[…]

Making Sense of Long Range Forecasts

In an October 31 blog post, distinguished meteorologist Cliff Mass of the University of Washington commented on the degree of usefulness of long-range forecasts, with the title, “Extended Forecasts Are Not Reliable”. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/10/extended-forecasts-are-not-reliable.html Dr. Mass highlights the lack of deterministic skill in the dynamical forecast models beyond two weeks and illustrates the problem of “poor[…]

European Summer Forecast Success

One of the core products that the World Climate Service delivers to customers is a once-a-month seasonal forecast report focused on expected climate conditions in the next three months in Europe and North America. The report includes comprehensive discussion of factors that are likely to influence the seasonal climate, and the forecast is summarized in[…]

Example Model Consistency Display

Ensemble Dynamical Forecast Model Calibration for Seasonal Climate Prediction

The World Climate Service uses a special technique called “calibration” to ensure the forecasts of probabilities of weather events are properly estimated. It’s a fairly complex technique that requires processing a significant amount of retrospective data from dynamical models such as the CFSv2 and the ECMWF. The subseasonal and seasonal dynamical model calibration methodology used[…]

Week 3 temperature probability forecast

Seasonal Forecasts – Who To Believe?

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal, quoting World Climate Service scientist Paul Knight, commented on the contradictory winter forecasts issued by two competing versions of the U.S. “Farmer’s Almanac”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-winter-be-nasty-or-nice-depends-which-farmers-almanac-you-read-11545929300 While the discussion is lighthearted, and some might say the forecasts themselves are not to be taken seriously, the article illustrates the popular[…]

August 2016 – New NOAA Phase II SBIR Award To Develop subseasonal climate forecasts

A phase II NOAA SBIR grant was awarded to the World Climate Service to develop seasonal and subseasonal climate forecasts of industry-specific impact variables and extreme events. The grant will allow Prescient Weather to extend the capabilities of the World Climate Service.  The expected development will improve the subseasonal climate forecast capabilities by focusing on[…]