Benefits of Success: World Climate Service in the USBR Forecast Rodeo

US Bureau of Reclamation Press Release On March 7, 2019, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) announced the winners of their Subseasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo, which took place between April 2017 and April 2018. Prescient Weather participated in the contest and  performed very well, ranking first for all categories combined and second in all but[…]

Ensemble Dynamical Forecast Model Calibration for Seasonal Climate Prediction

The World Climate Service uses a special technique called “calibration” to ensure the forecasts of probabilities of weather events are properly estimated. It’s a fairly complex technique that requires processing a significant amount of retrospective data from dynamical models such as the CFSv2 and the ECMWF. The subseasonal and seasonal dynamical model calibration methodology used[…]

Week 3 temperature probability forecast

Seasonal Forecasts – Who To Believe?

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal, quoting World Climate Service scientist Paul Knight, commented on the contradictory winter forecasts issued by two competing versions of the U.S. “Farmer’s Almanac”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-winter-be-nasty-or-nice-depends-which-farmers-almanac-you-read-11545929300 While the discussion is lighthearted, and some might say the forecasts themselves are not to be taken seriously, the article illustrates the popular[…]

Week 2 Subseasonal Forecast Example

Upgrade to World Climate Service Subseasonal

Upgrade to World Climate Service Subseasonal Product The World Climate Service, an industry-leading provider of long-range weather and climate forecasts, announces the launch of a significant upgrade to its subseasonal forecast product.  Subseasonal forecasts (3-6 weeks ahead) are increasingly sought after by weather-sensitive enterprises in diverse industry sectors.   The product upgrade, released on December 11th,[…]

World Climate Service Places First in Forecast Rodeo – A Subseasonal Climate Forecast Contest

World Climate Service Subseasonal Climate Forecast Performs Well   In April 2017, the US Bureau of Reclamation launched a year-long realtime subseasonal climate forecasting competition.  Contestants were asked to predict temperature and precipitation over the western half of the USA for lead times of 3-4 weeks and 5-6 weeks separately.  The forecasts were issued every other[…]

August 2016 – New NOAA Phase II SBIR Award To Develop subseasonal climate forecasts

A phase II NOAA SBIR grant was awarded to the World Climate Service to develop seasonal and subseasonal climate forecasts of industry-specific impact variables and extreme events. The grant will allow Prescient Weather to extend the capabilities of the World Climate Service.  The expected development will improve the subseasonal climate forecast capabilities by focusing on[…]