2018 Winter Forecast: A seasonal forecast from the World Climate Service

The World Climate Service has released a preliminary 2018 winter forecast. Our early 2018 winter forecast for the energy industry is available from the World Climate Service at no cost or obligation.   The World Climate Service preliminary 2018 winter forecast is designed to provide a early view of the important climate drivers that may cause significant variations from normal weather conditions during December, January, and February. The World Climate Service produces monthly and seasonal climate/long range weather forecasts up to 6 months in advance. It also provides the tools needed to understand and create these challenging predictions.

Key Drivers for 2018 Winter Forecast - United States

The key drivers identified for the North American 2018 winter forecast includes:Sea Surface Temperature Driver - Statistical Climate Forecast
  • Weak El Niño Modoki and positive NPM phase
  • High pressure ridge in the northeastern Pacific
  • Meridional flow pattern with a trough in the eastern U.S.
  • Active subtropical jet stream producing moist conditions in the U.S. Southwest

Key Drivers for 2018 Winter Forecast - EuropeImpact of Modoki El Nino on Europe

The key drivers identified for the European 2019 winter forecast include:
  • Pronounced quadrupole pattern of North Atlantic SST anomalies
  • A trough near northwestern Europe and a generally positive NAO phase
  • Weak El Niño Modoki conditions
The reasoning behind why these are key drivers and how they pertain to the dynamical, statistical, and analog forecast guidance are discussed in the full 2018 Preliminary Winter Forecast document.

World Climate Service analyzes climate drivers

The World Climate service is prepared by climate scientists with over 15 years of experience.  They have available to them calibrated multi-model dynamical forecasts, statistical based forecasts, and the best analog climate forecasting tool available on the market.  These tools are used to understand the drivers of climate variability.  The forecasts are based on an analyses and understanding of the climate impact of these drivers.

Request our Preliminary 2018 Winter Forecast to gain full insight into the 2018 Winter.